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India Export-Import | 2021 Data & 2022 Forecast | Will Omnicron impact?

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the global economy has suffered massive losses. Something similar happened during the financial crisis of 2008–2009, but this time the challenges weren’t just financial in nature.

In a recent interview, Piyush Goyal, the Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, stated that "India's economy was witnessing a bounce back in every sphere. The country is expected to achieve USD 400 billion in merchandise exports in the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2022." To read more, click here.

As of right now, India is regarded as a reliable global partner in the maintenance of international supply chains. When it comes to working during the recent pandemic, Indian exporters have demonstrated exceptional willingness and compassion. As a result, the country has experienced the "highest ever" inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) of USD 27 billion in the first four months of this fiscal year, representing a 62% jump over the same period in 2020.

This brings us to the question of what will happen to the export-import business in 2022: 

  • India Bounce back in International Trade - 2021 Data
  • 2022 Forecast - Export industry blooming or not?
  • Omicron a subsequent danger for International Trade?

India Bounces back in International Trade

The RBI recently forecasted the GDP for the fiscal year 2022. The real GDP growth is projected at 9.95%, with growth predicted at 6.6% in the third quarter of fiscal year 2022 and 6.4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022. Q1FY23 growth is projected at 17.2%, and Q4FY22 growth is projected at 6.4%.

In contrast, Fitch Ratings reduced its economic growth forecasts for India to 8.4% for the current financial year. India's growth prospects for FY23 were raised by 10.3% points by the agency, indicating that the country is still optimistic. With that in mind, let's take a look at the textile export and import statistics for the current fiscal year.

FY21-22 saw a massive jump in textile export leading to $24,424 M; 60.44% year over year growth. A similar trend can be seen in the Import growth rate of 60.68%. The major countries to which India exported to are the USA, Bangladesh, Arab Emirates, China. Now let’s have a look at the leather export and import statistics for the current fiscal year.

Leather export lead to $2,673 M; 38.65% Y0Y growth. The major countries to which we exported are the UK, Germany, USA, France, Italy, Spain, Netherland, and China

Currently, India is in a relatively good position to resume its upward trajectory. Despite this, RBI warns that India cannot be considered immune to global spillovers or outbreaks of infections caused by Omicron variant.

India Exports and Imports 2022 Forecasts

[ Following data might change with time at the risk of the third wave of Covid-19.]

According to Trading Economics- global macro models and analysts' forecasts, India's exports are expected to reach 35900.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter. The India Exports is expected to trend around 32900.00 USD Million in 2022 and 33900.00 USD Million in 2023.

In a recent interview, Upendra Prasad Singh, Secretary, Union Ministry of Textiles stated that “The demand for textiles and clothing from India has rebounded, particularly in the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, giving the industry reason to be optimistic about achieving a 33 per cent increase in exports this fiscal year”. As the major countries are boycotting China and looking for Indian Traders; the growth rate is expected to go even higher. 

Is Omicron a subsequent danger for International Trade

Major banks like Asian Development Bank, have expressed concern about the possibility of a significant economic impact from the highly mutated Omicron variant. As a result of the Covid-19 variant's rapid impact on European and African countries, it has been predicted that it will have a negative impact on India's external demand also.

Amidst the ongoing travel restrictions, it has become a necessity for export businesses to go digital. Importers and sourcing agents worldwide have also turned to online platforms to bridge the gap and connect with suppliers, wholesalers, and manufacturers. 

There are many platforms that facilitate international trade online. To learn how to find buyers, create & share catalogues securely, and get detailed analytics on e catalgoue links, book a free demo here.

Author : Shalini Singh (Marketing Associate), Shreya Pandey